Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.035545 2.138591 2.248605 2.375644 2.519411 2.678449 2.869701
2025-06-15 1.928862 2.063209 2.212647 2.393551 2.610061 2.865741 3.198675
2025-06-22 1.807369 1.953463 2.119951 2.327417 2.584811 2.902554 3.340952
2025-06-29 1.740477 1.898714 2.083034 2.319001 2.622078 3.013298 3.587483
2025-07-06 1.667671 1.830934 2.024024 2.276004 2.607964 3.051263 3.734984
2025-07-13 1.639550 1.814096 2.024430 2.305604 2.688369 3.223350 4.108816
2025-07-20 1.626845 1.814420 2.044879 2.360939 2.806959 3.463895 4.650688
2025-07-27 1.593154 1.786347 2.026843 2.362554 2.848598 3.592936 5.035340
2025-08-03 1.563574 1.761729 2.011395 2.365715 2.891436 3.728293 5.475527
2025-08-10 1.513444 1.708769 1.956137 2.309708 2.839993 3.698950 5.556903
2025-08-17 1.483677 1.680851 1.932688 2.296947 2.853274 3.781930 5.923374
2025-08-24 1.456279 1.654916 1.910598 2.284507 2.865414 3.863729 6.322387
2025-08-31 1.427335 1.626904 1.885744 2.268404 2.873193 3.944230 6.780282
2025-09-07 1.412531 1.616749 1.884435 2.286285 2.937285 4.142915 7.735945
2025-09-14 1.372305 1.571666 1.833392 2.227189 2.867516 4.061578 7.689990
2025-09-21 1.351837 1.552323 1.817309 2.219993 2.885576 4.165713 8.430553
2025-09-28 1.321980 1.519609 1.781515 2.181082 2.845849 4.140639 8.630231
2025-10-05 1.315221 1.517669 1.788630 2.208171 2.923839 4.388646 10.434245
2025-10-12 1.315993 1.525794 1.810077 2.258550 3.048812 4.780094 14.431823
2025-10-19 1.301877 1.513114 1.801167 2.260054 3.082847 4.955690 17.964058
2025-10-26 1.288867 1.501571 1.793443 2.262945 3.119645 5.149209 24.161551
2025-11-02 1.260839 1.468682 1.753763 2.212041 3.047261 5.020457 23.065649
2025-11-09 1.245174 1.452632 1.738316 2.200427 3.052255 5.119094 29.657933